Panorama 360° : March

Between oil shock and technological disruption · 30 März 2026

Markets are reaching a strategic turning point: as the energy shock and the return of inflation take hold, performance dispersion is accelerating across all sectors.

A start to the year marked by geopolitical and inflationary tensions
The financial landscape at the start of 2026 has been shaken by a rapid succession of political and macroeconomic shifts. After a January supported by resilient global growth and constructive prospects surrounding artificial intelligence, February saw the return of uncertainty driven by U.S. politics and trade tensions. However, it was the period spanning late February and March that truly reshaped the environment, marked by the escalation of military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This conjunction triggered a major energy shock, reigniting inflation expectations and pushing long-term interest rates higher, thereby impacting both equity and bond markets.

Equities: geographic dispersion and pronounced sector rotation
Equity markets have shown contrasting performance since the beginning of the year. Asia (ex-Japan) and emerging markets stand out positively, demonstrating resilience so far despite tensions in the Middle East. Japan follows a similar trend, supported by a solid domestic growth environment. In contrast, it is notable that the United States and China are lagging in our regional performance rankings. U.S. markets have been weighed down by the correction in AI-related stocks following a period of exuberance, as well as growing concerns regarding software companies. The latter’s growth prospects are now being questioned due to the rise of AI agents capable of coding with a high degree of autonomy. Meanwhile, China continues to face uneven growth, despite more encouraging recent indicators suggesting early signs of stabilization.

At the sector level, performance has been heavily influenced by the energy shock. The energy sector has significantly outperformed, driven by the surge in oil prices. Utilities have played their defensive role effectively while also benefiting from the massive investment needs linked to the energy demands of AI development. In contrast, rate- and growth-sensitive sectors—such as technology, telecommunications, and consumer discretionary—are now firmly in negative territory.

Bonds: pressure on duration
Bond markets are mechanically reflecting renewed inflationary pressures. Inflation-linked bonds logically lead performance, benefiting from rising inflation expectations driven by the oil shock. Convertible bonds are also holding up well, supported by their equity sensitivity, with underlying exposure to growth sectors such as utilities, crypto-assets, and, of course, AI.

By contrast, more traditional segments are under pressure. Long-duration bonds have been penalized by rising long-term yields. Credit markets are also showing signs of strain, particularly in the United States, where private credit is facing liquidity pressures and increased redemption requests, putting upward pressure on spreads.

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