Panorama 360° : September

When the numbers start to bite · 18 September 2026

Artificial intelligence is transforming our lives and the economy, but technological enthusiasm is increasingly being tested by financial reality.

Since the beginning of the year, risky assets have risen despite a challenging economic and geopolitical environment. However, behind the strength of the major indices lies a more nuanced reality: energy and artificial-intelligence-related stocks have attracted considerable investor interest, while long-term bonds have been penalized by renewed inflationary pressures.

Solid but increasingly selective equity market.
The resilience of equity markets masks significant disparities between regions, sectors, and even companies within the same industry. Index gains have often been driven by a small group of companies with strong fundamentals. Corporate earnings have provided important support for markets, as evidenced by the latest reporting season.

At the sector level, energy has clearly dominated markets since the start of the year, driven by the sharp rise in oil prices. The latest escalation in Middle East tensions has further strengthened the outlook for producers and revived inflation concerns. Technology nevertheless remains a major market driver, supported by massive investment in AI, data centers and semiconductors. This momentum is also benefiting industrial companies, which are essential to the development of energy and digital infrastructure. After their strong rally in the first half of the year, semiconductor stocks are now going through a consolidation phase, despite still posting very strong gains since January. The debate is therefore gradually shifting away from the sheer scale of investment towards its ability to generate productivity gains and sustainable earnings, in a market that has become less tolerant of elevated valuations. At the other end of the spectrum, consumer discretionary stocks have been weighed down by inflationary pressures on purchasing power and weak Chinese demand.

Bond markets presented a far more nuanced picture. Convertible bonds continued to benefit from their exposure to the growth of the technology and industrial sectors while retaining their asymmetric characteristics. By contrast, long-dated sovereign bonds remained under significant pressure, particularly in Europe, where long-term yields reached multi-year highs. Persistent inflation, large fiscal deficits and growing financing needs continue to support a high term premium. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s reduced reliance on forward guidance under Kevin Warsh has added another source of uncertainty, giving investors less visibility on the future path of interest rates. This combination of factors continues to fuel volatility and exert additional pressure on long-duration bonds.

Discover the full article in our September edition

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