Market Overview : June 2023

Clearly unpredictable · 9 June 2023

Uncertainty - when it comes to discussing the financial markets in recent months, this word has a strong resonance. Predicting macroeconomic data and its impact on the markets is a perilous exercise. It is even more so today. The end of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have led to an explosion in inflation and a sharp rise in interest rates. These events have had a massive impact on the economy and the health of societies, and have rendered macroeconomic models based on historical data useless. The level of uncertainty is therefore logically high. But how can we measure this uncertainty? One way was proposed by US economists in 20151. The idea is to quantify macroeconomic uncertainty by assessing the quality of economists' forecasts. If the forecasts are close to the true value, uncertainty is low. If the forecast errors are substantial, it is high. Not surprisingly, by this measure, we are now at levels rarely seen in history. 

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Market Overview - June 2023 Survol des marchés - juin 2023